Surfaces, Balls and Back-ups β Where the Iconic Series Will Be Won and Lost
Two days remaining.
The English side's first Test in Australia gets under way on Friday morning.
Drawing on analysis from cricket statistics experts, we examine where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be decided.
It's tough to make runs, isn't it?
Batsmen on both teams of the Ashes rivalry might be questioning why they are bothering to turn up.
A lot of the build-up has focused on the perceived difficulty of scoring runs, especially for the first Test on a Perth pitch described as a "lush, challenging surface".
When it comes to playing in Australian conditions, especially against fast bowling, no country has been more difficult in which to score runs over the last five years.
There are two reasons for this: wickets and balls.
Taken as a collective, the surfaces prepared in Australia have recently proved to be the fastest, most bouncy and among the least predictable in the world.
Speed and inconsistent bounce are the perfect recipe for tough batting.
A long-standing narrative from English cricket paints the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a pace bowler.
A new version of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, resulting in increased seam movement.
Seam is a much bigger weapon than swing in this country.
Since the new Kookaburra, fast bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.
Test cricket is about problem solving.
When the ball is on top, batsmen's contributions can be the deciding factor, and vice-versa.
Should this series be dominated by the ball, a batter could have the chance to be the difference between the two teams.
Whatβs happening with the Australia seamers?
On this occasion, England have toured Australia with their fast-bowling unit largely intact, while the hosts are the ones affected by fitness issues.
Captain Pat Cummins will be absent for the opening match with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unspecified time because of a hamstring injury.
Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first paired as a trio for the 2017-18 series.
Since then, they have combined to claim 81% of the dismissals taken by Australia pace bowlers in matches in Australia.
The Australian team have seldom needed alternatives because of the effectiveness and robustness of the 'big three'.
When Australia have needed a back-up, Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 wickets in 14 Tests at an average below 17.
In addition to Boland, other bowlers of the backup squad have stepped up.
Neser, Richardson and Pattinson all average below 30 in home Tests.
The most recent occasion Australia entered a home Test without both key bowlers, and were defeated, was in 2012.
The past two times they have competed in Australia without the duo, they have won by a combined 694 runs, featuring a victory against England in Adelaide previously.
On the rare occasions Australia have had to go past their star fast bowlers, outcomes have remained strong β The tourists should pay attention.
Tough at the top
Recall the time England could not find an opener to go alongside Alastair Cook?
Cook changed partners faster than Watford change coaches.
Not anymore.
Ever since Ben Duckett and Crawley were united at the top of the England order at the end of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has scored more runs together.
Their success as a partnership has been a reason in Crawley being backed through some patchy form.
Crawley, who famously struck the initial delivery of the last Ashes series for four, has also been identified as having the game for Australia.
His batting average rises when the pace increases.
By contrast, Australia's top order is in a constant state of flux, yet to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.
Following Warner's retirement at the start of 2024, Khawaja has walked out with five different partners in 15 Tests.
Yet to debut Jake Weatherald looks set to become the sixth in 16 Tests on the opening day, giving Australia an left-handed opening pair.
It's not only the openers that has caused problems for Australia.
Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was shifted to open for the World Test Championship final, then left out completely.
Home performances has earned him a recall, most likely returning to number three.
Across seven matches in 2025, Australia's top three have a combined average of 25.37.
Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have done worse.
Battle of Spin
Between two closely matched sides, there is one area where Australia are clearly stronger β spin.
Nathan Lyon of Australia, with 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spinners to play the game.
Shoaib Bashir of England is a somewhat successful gamble, appearing out of touch after a finger injury, while Will Jacks is mainly a batsman.
It would seem logical for the hosts to want Lyon at the forefront, but bowling spin has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the last decade.
During that period, slow bowlers have averaged nearly 44 in this country, though Lyon's statistics holds up well compared to the struggles of visiting tweakers.
Another challenge for Lyon is actually bowling enough overs.
Recall the potency of fast bowling?
It limits the time Lyon has with ball in hand.
During the 2017-18 series here, Nathan Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.
In the previous year, in five Tests against the Indian team, it was half that number.
Tests in Australia are 25% shorter since the updated ball was brought in, meaning the spinner has less space to influence the game.
Right place, right time?
England have a depressing habit of being defeated in an away Ashes before Father Christmas has set off.
Traditionally, the series began in the Gabba, where they have not won since 1986.
Recently, that has been followed by a day-night Test in Adelaide.
The visitors have a single victory in seven day-night matches worldwide, while Australia have won 13 out of 14.
Then on to Perth, a venue England have visited on 14 occasions since 1970 and won only once, against a depleted Australia in 1978.
This time, the initial three venues on the itinerary are the identical, only in a rearranged order and under altered conditions.
The Perth Test stages an series opener for the first time, not at the fabled Waca β site of past English struggles β but the modern Perth Stadium.
It remains a tough assignment, though one the visitors tackle with no past burdens.
Brisbane is the location for the second Test, the day-night fixture.
The most recent occasion Australia played a pink-ball Test at the Brisbane, they were surprised by the West Indies.
Similarly, the Australians are now not used to playing day matches at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide Oval.
Across two traditional Tests played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia lost one, to the Indian team, in 2018.
The re-jigged schedule gives England a new opportunity at beginning an overseas series positively, albeit with pitfalls.
The home side have secured victory in four out of five matches played at Perth Stadium, though the single loss came in the most recent match β against India the previous year.
Each match at the new venue has been won by the team setting a target.
England often complicate floodlit Tests, when data indicate the pink cricket ball does not behave very differently from its traditional red ball.
The challenge in {day-night matches|
